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Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00
Nissan Stadium, Nashville US
☀️ Clear
Spread 1.5
O/U 39.5
Win Probability
Clear
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- TEN defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- QB edge to TEN: Cam Ward (TEN) -0.144 vs Geno Smith (NYJ) -0.200 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
NYJ
21
–
TEN
24
Projected margin: TEN by 3
Projected total: 45
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.
Actual Result
Not played yet.