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Indianapolis Colts

0-2 HC Shane Steichen
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Kansas City Chiefs

2-0 HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2026-09-20 · 20:20 ET GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

IND
39.1%
KC
60.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.135 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

IND 21 14–28
–
KC 23 16–30
Projected margin: KC by 2 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

IND

Ashton Dulin WR Out Ankle
DJ Giddens RB Questionable Knee

KC

Chamarri Conner S Out Knee
Josh Simmons T Out Back
Chris Jones DT Questionable Calf
Mansoor Delane CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 30
–
KC 33

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:28 TD IND (8:28) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – KC 0
  • Q1 06:13 FG KC (6:13) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. IND 7 – KC 3
  • Q1 04:40 TD KC (4:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – KC 9
  • Q2 14:52 FG IND (14:52) 3-S.Shrader 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – KC 10
  • Q2 09:50 FG IND (9:50) 3-S.Shrader 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – KC 10
  • Q2 02:28 TD KC (2:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – KC 16
  • Q2 01:04 TD IND (1:04) 28-J.Taylor right end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – KC 17
  • Q3 08:06 TD KC (8:06) 66-M.Caliendo and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-J.Royals for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – KC 23
  • Q4 14:18 FG KC (14:18) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. IND 20 – KC 27
  • Q4 05:41 TD IND (5:41) 28-J.Taylor left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 26 – KC 27
  • Q5 05:13 FG KC (5:13) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. IND 27 – KC 30
  • Q5 03:15 FG IND (3:15) 3-S.Shrader 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 30 – KC 30
  • Q5 00:01 FG KC (:01) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. IND 30 – KC 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 82%

    (6:13) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 31%

    (2:27) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor left guard to KC 46 for 3 yards (95-C.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 12 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%

    (14:52) 3-S.Shrader 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 73%

    (12:47) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 17 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 77%

    (9:50) 3-S.Shrader 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 69 yards to IND 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-22-J.Canady.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 34%

    (12:01) 92-K.Tonga and 64-H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. 92-K.Tonga up the middle to IND 45 for 3 yards (30-H.Wohler).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (8:06) 66-M.Caliendo and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-J.Royals for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 25%

    (5:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to KC 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 9 for 2 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (14:18) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 86%

    (9:07) 17-D.Jones up the middle to KC 22 for 3 yards (56-G.Karlaftis; 95-C.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:22) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to IND 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 27%

    (:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to KC 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 16 for 6 yards (80-D.Burks; 29-C.Taylor-Britt).

    See the full breakdown →