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IND Away

Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2026-09-20 · 20:20 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ❓ Unknown Spread 6.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

IND
35.6%
KC
64.4%
Unknown

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.155 vs Daniel Jones (IND) +0.164 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

IND 22
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.

Actual Result

Not played yet.