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Jacksonville Jaguars

1-1 HC Liam Coen
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

1-1 HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2026-09-20 · 16:05 ET Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

JAX
45.6%
DEN
54.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): +0.188 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN offense: +0.004 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

JAX 18 11–25
–
DEN 23 16–30
Projected margin: DEN by 5 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

JAX

No players on the report.

DEN

Marvin Mims Jr. WR Out Foot
RJ Harvey RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 13
–
DEN 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:17 TD JAX (12:17) (Shotgun) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 33-B.Tuten. 33-B.Tuten right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – DEN 0
  • Q2 07:03 FG DEN (7:03) 3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. JAX 7 – DEN 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG JAX (:03) 39-C.Little 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 10 – DEN 3
  • Q3 09:05 FG JAX (9:05) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 13 – DEN 3
  • Q3 05:02 FG DEN (5:02) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. JAX 13 – DEN 6
  • Q4 11:53 TD DEN (11:53) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – DEN 12
  • Q4 07:24 TD DEN (7:24) 20-J.Coleman right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – DEN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:11) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to JAX 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 11-P.Washington MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 28. 11-P.Washington to JAX 28 for no gain (34-J.Skinner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 28%

    (10:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to DEN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:22) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to JAX 26, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 11-P.Washington to JAX 38 for 12 yards (51-Q.Robinson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 18 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to DEN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 11 for -1 yards (25-R.Lane).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (2:12) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to JAX 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (7:03) 3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to DEN 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 31-K.Abrams-Draine MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 13. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 16 for 3 yards (25-R.Lane; 46-R.Matiscik).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (9:05) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 83%

    (5:02) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 64%

    (9:45) 39-C.Little 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →