4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike McCarthy
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2026-09-20 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ❓ Unknown Spread 4.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

PIT
24.3%
NE
75.7%
Unknown

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Drake Maye (NE) +0.119 vs Aaron Rodgers (PIT) -0.038 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NE on 4 more days rest than PIT

Predicted Final Score

PIT 20
NE 25
Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.

Actual Result

Not played yet.