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Washington Commanders

0-2 HC Dan Quinn
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Dallas Cowboys

1-1 HC Brian Schottenheimer
Sunday 2026-09-20 · 16:25 ET AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

WAS
47.0%
DAL
53.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: +0.179 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • WAS defense: +0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.144 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

WAS 25 18–32
–
DAL 26 19–33
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 51

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

WAS

Frankie Luvu LB Out Groin
Chig Okonkwo TE Out Hamstring
Javon Kinlaw DT Questionable Back

DAL

Malik Hooker S Out Forearm
DeMarvion Overshown LB Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 20
–
DAL 37

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:04 TD DAL (10:04) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 05:04 FG DAL (5:04) 17-B.Aubrey 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. WAS 0 – DAL 10
  • Q2 13:22 FG WAS (13:22) 19-D.Stevens 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 3 – DAL 10
  • Q2 09:59 TD DAL (9:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – DAL 16
  • Q2 06:40 TD WAS (6:40) (No Huddle) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 3-S.Diggs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – DAL 17
  • Q3 12:55 FG WAS (12:55) 19-D.Stevens 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 13 – DAL 17
  • Q3 07:24 FG DAL (7:24) 17-B.Aubrey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. WAS 13 – DAL 20
  • Q3 06:37 TD DAL (6:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – DAL 26
  • Q4 13:27 FG DAL (13:27) 17-B.Aubrey 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. WAS 13 – DAL 30
  • Q4 09:09 TD WAS (9:09) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 3-S.Diggs for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-O.Ogbonnia]. WAS 19 – DAL 30
  • Q4 03:13 TD DAL (3:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – DAL 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (8:15) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to DAL 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 36 for 9 yards (51-A.Kaho).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (5:04) 17-B.Aubrey 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (13:22) 19-D.Stevens 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:13) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to WAS 21, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-J.Lane to WAS 35 for 14 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 84%

    (12:55) 19-D.Stevens 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (7:24) 17-B.Aubrey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 16 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 78%

    (1:57) 19-D.Stevens 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 58%

    (13:27) 17-B.Aubrey 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →