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Cincinnati Bengals

2-1 HC Zac Taylor
@
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Pittsburgh Steelers

2-1 HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CIN
51.3%
PIT
48.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Aaron Rodgers (PIT) -0.128 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.111 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: +0.007 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23 16–30
–
PIT 20 13–27
Projected margin: CIN by 3 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

CIN

Andrei Iosivas WR Out Thumb
B.J. Hill DT Doubtful Achilles

PIT

Rico Dowdle RB Out Toe
Gennings Dunker G Out Knee
Jamel Dean CB Questionable Ankle
Michael Pittman WR Questionable Foot
Jaylen Warren RB Questionable Shoulder
Joey Porter Jr. CB Questionable Not injury related - other

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 27
–
PIT 30

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:17 TD PIT (13:17) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 14-R.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 05:54 TD CIN (5:54) 69-J.Bayer reported in as eligible. 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – PIT 7
  • Q1 00:57 TD PIT (:57) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 15-B.Skowronek for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – PIT 13
  • Q2 10:20 FG CIN (10:20) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 10 – PIT 14
  • Q2 07:10 FG PIT (7:10) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. CIN 10 – PIT 17
  • Q2 00:39 TD CIN (:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [69-S.Joseph]. CIN 16 – PIT 17
  • Q3 08:26 FG CIN (8:26) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 20 – PIT 17
  • Q3 02:48 TD PIT (2:48) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – PIT 23
  • Q4 13:33 TD CIN (13:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 26 – PIT 24
  • Q4 08:48 FG PIT (8:48) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. CIN 27 – PIT 27
  • Q4 02:18 FG PIT (2:18) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. CIN 27 – PIT 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 74%

    (10:20) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 86%

    (7:10) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 25%

    (4:40) 8-R.Rehkow punts 41 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-W.Wagner. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at PIT 15 for 5 yards (42-O.Burks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 48%

    (10:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at PIT 21 for 21 yards (22-A.Samuel).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 9 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 91%

    (8:26) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 86%

    (13:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:04) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to CIN 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 12-K.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at CIN 16, RECOVERED by PIT-15-B.Skowronek at CIN 14. PIT-26-B.Echols was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 14 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%

    (8:48) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 25%

    (7:46) 8-R.Rehkow punts 43 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 15 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (2:18) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →