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Houston Texans

0-3 HC DeMeco Ryans
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Indianapolis Colts

1-2 HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

HOU
42.2%
IND
57.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Daniel Jones (IND): +0.095 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

HOU 21 14–28
–
IND 23 16–30
Projected margin: IND by 2 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

HOU

Jadeveon Clowney DE Out Knee
M.J. Stewart S Out Knee
Nico Collins WR Out Hamstring
Jacob Hummel LB Out Groin
Ed Ingram G Out Groin
Trent Brown T Questionable Knee

IND

Ashton Dulin WR Out Ankle
Alec Pierce WR Out Heel
Charvarius Ward CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 17
–
IND 19

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:32 FG IND (4:32) 3-S.Shrader 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. ** Injury Update: IND-3-S.Shrader has returned to the game. HOU 0 – IND 3
  • Q2 11:13 TD IND (11:13) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 10-K.Allen for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – IND 9
  • Q2 04:34 TD HOU (4:34) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 87-F.Moreau for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – IND 10
  • Q2 01:08 FG IND (1:08) 3-S.Shrader 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. HOU 7 – IND 13
  • Q4 12:47 FG IND (12:47) 3-S.Shrader 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. HOU 7 – IND 16
  • Q4 07:36 FG HOU (7:36) 15-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. HOU 10 – IND 16
  • Q4 01:50 TD HOU (1:50) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – IND 16
  • Q4 00:21 FG IND (:21) 3-S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. HOU 17 – IND 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:32) 38-K.Kroeger punts 56 yards to IND 16, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 6-A.Gould to IND 36 for 20 yards (56-J.Hill).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 79%

    (9:47) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to IND 31 for no gain (0-C.Bynum; 99-D.Buckner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 93%

    (5:25) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones scrambles right end to HOU 18 for 1 yard (24-D.Stingley).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 13 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%

    (4:32) 3-S.Shrader 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. ** Injury Update: IND-3-S.Shrader has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 16 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 59%

    (1:08) 3-S.Shrader 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (:39) 38-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to IND 9, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 6-A.Gould to IND 14 for 5 yards (11-T.Smith).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:01) 38-K.Kroeger punts 67 yards to IND 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 13 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 13-J.Noel to HOU 28 for 11 yards (58-A.Ajiake).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:23) 38-K.Kroeger punts 36 yards to IND 30, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 38%

    (3:24) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor right tackle to HOU 44 for 4 yards (35-J.Hansen).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

    (12:47) 3-S.Shrader 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (7:36) 15-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 69%

    (:21) 3-S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →