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KC Away

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Jeff Hafley
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ❓ Unknown Spread -7.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

KC
41.6%
MIA
58.4%
Unknown

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.155 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

KC 22
MIA 23
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.

Actual Result

Not played yet.