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Los Angeles Rams

1-2 HC Sean McVay
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Denver Broncos

2-1 HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 20:20 ET Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

LA
50.5%
DEN
49.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.231 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN offense: +0.004 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LA 24 17–31
–
DEN 20 13–27
Projected margin: LA by 4 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

LA

Puka Nacua WR Doubtful Hip
Kamren Kinchens S Doubtful Hamstring
Colby Parkinson TE Questionable Knee

DEN

Jonah Coleman RB Out Ankle
Marvin Mims Jr. WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 26
–
DEN 30

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:00 TD LA (5:00) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – DEN 0
  • Q2 13:21 FG LA (13:21) 92-H.Mevis 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 10 – DEN 0
  • Q2 04:46 FG LA (4:46) 92-H.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 13 – DEN 0
  • Q2 00:03 FG LA (:03) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 16 – DEN 0
  • Q3 07:50 TD DEN (7:50) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 13-P.Bryant for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – DEN 6
  • Q3 02:19 TD DEN (2:19) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – DEN 14
  • Q4 08:44 FG LA (8:44) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 19 – DEN 16
  • Q4 05:01 TD DEN (5:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 19 – DEN 22
  • Q4 03:46 TD LA (3:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 25 – DEN 23
  • Q4 00:48 TD DEN (:48) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – DEN 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 36%

    (11:05) 42-E.Evans punts 33 yards to DEN 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 31-K.Abrams-Draine.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to LA 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 68%

    (7:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 30 for 5 yards (22-B.Jones). Denver challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 86%

    (1:23) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (13:21) 92-H.Mevis 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (11:51) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to LA 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (4:46) 92-H.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:18) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to LA 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-X.Smith to LA 24 for 16 yards (51-Q.Robinson; 92-D.Tillman).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:08) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 62 yards to LA 0, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at LA 10 for 10 yards (34-J.Skinner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:04) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to DEN 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis ran ob at LA 42 for 28 yards (42-E.Evans).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 19 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (14:50) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to DEN 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 29 for 10 yards (56-S.Dolac; 49-J.Cardona).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 15 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 79%

    (8:44) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:10) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to LA 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →