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New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville US ❓ Unknown Spread 1.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

NE
34.2%
JAX
65.8%
Unknown

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX defense: -0.160 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): +0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 23
JAX 26
Projected margin: JAX by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.

Actual Result

Not played yet.