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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 87

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 3-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to NYG 42, Center-46-M.Cox. 87-B.Berrios to NYG 47 for 5 yards (56-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.74 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 87, worth -5.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model