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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 87

New York Giants 6 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 15-J.Stout punts 54 yards to TEN 33, Center-58-B.Mann. 17-C.Dike ran ob at TEN 47 for 14 yards (29-T.Tracy).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.17 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 87, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 45, worth -2.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model