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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 11

New York Giants 9 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 34-D.Zvada 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model