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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 46

New York Giants 12 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 15-J.Stout punts 38 yards to TEN 8, Center-58-B.Mann, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. PENALTY on NYG-28-E.Campbell, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.82 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP