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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 52

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 3-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to NYG 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 87-B.Berrios to NYG 18 for 7 yards (36-J.Chestnut).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.85 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.94 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model