Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 82

New York Giants 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:50) 15-J.Stout punts 74 yards to TEN 8, Center-58-B.Mann. 17-C.Dike to TEN 27 for 19 yards (52-A.Reese). PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at TEN 19. Penalty on TEN-41-E.Hallett, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.38 EP
61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model