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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 14 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to NYG 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.77 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model