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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Giants 6 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 15-J.Stout punts 51 yards to ARI 17, Center-58-B.Mann, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 26, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP