Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 81

Arizona Cardinals 14 – New York Giants 6

(8:35) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to NYG 44, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-B.Berrios to NYG 44 for no gain (86-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.18 EP
59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 81, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model