Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 24 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to NYG 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 89-C.Jones to NYG 16 for 6 yards (80-S.Fehoko). ARI-89-H.Long was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.87 EP
73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model