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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 50

New York Giants 27 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 15-J.Stout punts 47 yards to ARI 3, Center-58-B.Mann, downed by NYG-31-N.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.42 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model