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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 4

Arizona Cardinals 24 – New York Giants 30

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Banks at NYG 2. 2-D.Banks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.95 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 4, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.95 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model