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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 32

New York Giants 3 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 34-D.Zvada 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.57 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model