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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
Monday 2026-10-05 · 20:15 Caesars Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

ATL
42.8%
NO
57.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • ATL on 3 more days rest than NO

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22
NO 23
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.

Actual Result

Not played yet.