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Miami Dolphins

0-4 HC Jeff Hafley
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Minnesota Vikings

4-0 HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 16:05 ET U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

MIA
35.4%
MIN
64.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.164 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Malik Willis (MIA): -0.013 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIA 21 14–28
–
MIN 24 17–31
Projected margin: MIN by 3 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

MIA

Rob Beal Jr. LB Out Hamstring
Storm Duck CB Out Knee
Caleb Douglas WR Out Ankle

MIN

Justin Jefferson WR Out Ankle
Charles Demmings CB Out Hamstring
Brett Thorson P Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 10
–
MIN 15

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:57 FG MIN (7:57) 16-W.Reichard 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. MIA 0 – MIN 3
  • Q2 07:13 FG MIN (7:13) 16-W.Reichard 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. MIA 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 00:04 FG MIN (:04) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. MIA 0 – MIN 9
  • Q3 11:58 FG MIA (11:58) 47-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. MIA 3 – MIN 9
  • Q3 06:38 FG MIN (6:38) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. MIA 3 – MIN 12
  • Q3 00:15 TD MIA (:15) 0-O.Gordon left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – MIN 12
  • Q4 06:43 FG MIN (6:43) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. MIA 10 – MIN 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 43%

    (13:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-25-J.Wood, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:04) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIA 38 for 36 yards (84-R.Miller).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 14 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 84%

    (7:57) 16-W.Reichard 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:50) 48-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-T.Addington, downed by MIA-46-T.Addington. ** Injury Update: MIA-42-J.Woodard has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 19 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (14:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 6-M.Washington to MIA 26 for no gain (5-Z.Vaughn).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:26) 48-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price to MIN 18 for 3 yards (35-R.Taylor; 32-J.Simpson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 79%

    (7:13) 16-W.Reichard 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 43%

    (5:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 20 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:53) 48-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to MIN 24, Center-46-T.Addington, downed by MIA-0-O.Gordon. MIA-35-R.Taylor was injured during the play. The penalty was assisted by replay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%

    (11:58) 47-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 11 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (6:38) 16-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:21) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 14, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price pushed ob at MIN 26 for 12 yards (1-J.Tolbert).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to MIA 45, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 82%

    (10:08) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (6:43) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:48) 48-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 34, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-82-J.Jones, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 34.

    See the full breakdown →