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Buffalo Bills

4-1 HC Sean McDermott
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Los Angeles Rams

2-3 HC Sean McVay
Monday 2026-10-12 · 20:15 ET SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 55.5

Win Probability

BUF
44.7%
LA
55.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.201 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.139 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BUF 26 19–33
–
LA 27 20–34
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 53

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

BUF

Ed Oliver DE Out Knee
Josh Palmer WR Out Shoulder
DJ Moore WR Questionable Shoulder
Dee Alford CB Questionable Ankle
Landon Jackson DE Questionable Knee

LA

Quentin Lake S Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 37
–
LA 34

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:28 FG BUF (13:28) 16-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. BUF 3 – LA 0
  • Q1 00:13 FG BUF (:13) 16-T.Bass 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. BUF 6 – LA 0
  • Q2 08:04 TD LA (8:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – LA 6
  • Q2 05:16 TD BUF (5:16) 4-J.Cook right tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 12 – LA 7
  • Q3 10:14 TD LA (10:14) 24-B.Corum right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – LA 13
  • Q3 02:49 TD BUF (2:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 0-K.Coleman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA-35-J.Watson was injured during the play. BUF 19 – LA 14
  • Q4 14:20 TD LA (14:20) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 19 – LA 20
  • Q4 11:33 TD BUF (11:33) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 25 – LA 20
  • Q4 07:18 TD LA (7:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 27 – LA 26
  • Q4 01:44 TD BUF (1:44) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 33 – LA 27
  • Q4 00:08 TD LA (:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 34 – LA 33
  • Q5 02:00 FG BUF (2:00) 16-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. BUF 37 – LA 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 15 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 81%

    (13:28) 16-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 65%

    (8:00) 23-K.Williams left guard to BUF 37 for 2 yards (24-C.Bishop; 21-D.Igbinosun).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 79%

    (5:40) 92-H.Mevis 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (:13) 16-T.Bass 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 55%

    (2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 31 yards to BUF 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-G.Dortch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 63%

    (11:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to BUF 30 for 10 yards (24-C.Bishop).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:56) 42-E.Evans punts 62 yards to BUF 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 39 for 14 yards (33-D.Connors; 89-T.Higbee).

    See the full breakdown →