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Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US
❓ Unknown
Spread 1.5
O/U 39.5
Win Probability
Unknown
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- CLE defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- QB edge to CLE: Geno Smith (NYJ) -0.200 vs Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.174 EPA/dropback
- CLE on 3 more days rest than NYJ
Predicted Final Score
CLE
20
–
NYJ
23
Projected margin: NYJ by 3
Projected total: 43
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.
Actual Result
Not played yet.