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Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00
Nissan Stadium, Nashville US
❓ Unknown
Spread -3.5
O/U 43.5
Win Probability
Unknown
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- Cam Ward (TEN): -0.144 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- TEN defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- HOU defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- HOU offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
HOU
25
–
TEN
19
Projected margin: HOU by 6
Projected total: 44
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.
Actual Result
Not played yet.