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Arizona Cardinals

2-4 HC Jonathan Gannon
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Los Angeles Rams

2-4 HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 16:05 ET SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 12.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

ARI
24.5%
LA
75.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.197 vs Jacoby Brissett (ARI) -0.034 EPA/dropback
  • ARI defense: +0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ARI 21 14–28
–
LA 28 21–35
Projected margin: LA by 7 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

ARI

Andrew Wingard S Out Knee
Jeremiyah Love RB Out Ankle
Wydett Williams Jr. S Out Concussion
Budda Baker S Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Blake Gillikin P Questionable Back
Zaven Collins LB Questionable Hip
Kitan Crawford S Questionable Ankle

LA

Kam Curl S Questionable Ankle
Trent McDuffie CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 18
–
LA 16

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:47 FG LA (9:47) 19-B.Grupe 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. ARI 0 – LA 3
  • Q1 05:41 FG ARI (5:41) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 3 – LA 3
  • Q2 14:55 FG ARI (14:55) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 6 – LA 3
  • Q2 08:29 TD LA (8:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 24-B.Corum for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – LA 9
  • Q2 00:49 FG ARI (:49) 38-C.Ryland 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 9 – LA 9
  • Q3 06:29 FG ARI (6:29) 38-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 12 – LA 9
  • Q4 09:31 FG ARI (9:31) 38-C.Ryland 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 15 – LA 9
  • Q4 00:52 TD LA (:52) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson to ARI 1 for 5 yards (29-D.Burke). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: ARI-55-D.Stills has returned to the game. ARI 15 – LA 15
  • Q4 00:03 FG ARI (:03) 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 18 – LA 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.87 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (13:44) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (5:41) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (4:17) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (14:55) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:57) 12-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to LA 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:28) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 33 for 6 yards (49-J.Cardona).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%

    (:49) 38-C.Ryland 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (6:29) 38-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 86%

    (2:44) 87-D.Allen up the middle to ARI 27 for no gain (50-J.Gibbens; 1-Ma.Wilson). ARI-97-W.Nolen was injured during the play. ARI-10-J.Sweat was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (9:31) 38-C.Ryland 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:06) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to LA 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Bachman to LA 28 for 4 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 53%

    (3:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 23-K.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to LA 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Bachman to LA 14 for no gain (36-K.Crawford; 59-C.Kreiter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 89%

    (:03) 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →