4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
BUF Away

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn
Sunday 2026-11-15 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ❓ Unknown

Win Probability

BUF
80.1%
NYJ
19.9%
Unknown

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Geno Smith (NYJ) -0.200 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.140 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 31
NYJ 15
Projected margin: BUF by 16 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.

Actual Result

Not played yet.