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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

0-5 HC Jeff Hafley
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

2-4 HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2026-11-15 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome

Win Probability

MIA
32.1%
IND
67.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIA defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Daniel Jones (IND) -0.037 vs Malik Willis (MIA) -0.058 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIA 23 16–30
–
IND 24 17–31
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIA

No players on the report.

IND

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

Not played yet.