← Home
Sunday 2026-11-22 · 13:00
Ford Field, Detroit US
🏟 Dome
Win Probability
Dome
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.123 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.083 EPA/dropback
- TB on 7 more days rest than DET
- DET defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- TB defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
TB
23
–
DET
24
Projected margin: DET by 1
Projected total: 47
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 11
No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.
Actual Result
Not played yet.