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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 HC Liam Coen
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

2-4 HC Brian Schottenheimer
Sunday 2026-12-27 · 20:20 ET AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome

Win Probability

JAX
58.3%
DAL
41.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: +0.179 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to JAX: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.165 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.289 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

JAX 27 20–34
–
DAL 23 16–30
Projected margin: JAX by 4 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

JAX

No players on the report.

DAL

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

Not played yet.