4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
DEN Away

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2027-01-03 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ❓ Unknown

Win Probability

DEN
31.2%
NE
68.8%
Unknown

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): +0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22
NE 27
Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.

Actual Result

Not played yet.