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Sunday 2027-01-10 · 13:00 ET
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US
🏟 Dome
Win Probability
Dome
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- QB edge to JAX: Daniel Jones (IND) -0.037 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.289 EPA/dropback
- JAX offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- IND offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- IND defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
JAX
27
20–34
–
IND
19
12–26
Projected margin: JAX by 8
Projected total: 46
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 18
JAX
No players on the report.
IND
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Not played yet.
