4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
TB Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
Sunday 2027-01-10 · 13:00 Caesars Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome

Win Probability

TB
35.8%
NO
64.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (TB): -0.083 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • TB defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 21
NO 23
Projected margin: NO by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.

Actual Result

Not played yet.