4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 34

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.97 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP