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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2015-09-13 · 16:25 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

BAL
47.7%
DEN
52.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BAL: Peyton Manning (DEN) -0.100 vs Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.071 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BAL 20
–
DEN 21
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

BAL

Breshad Perriman WR Out Knee
Lorenzo Taliaferro RB Out Knee
Timmy Jernigan DT Doubtful Knee
Rashaan Melvin CB Doubtful Thigh
Chris Canty DE Probable Not Injury Related
Daryl Smith LB Probable Not Injury Related

DEN

Kenny Anunike DE Out Knee
Lerentee McCray LB Questionable Groin
Omar Bolden S Probable Rib cage
Andre Caldwell WR Probable Illness
Mitchell Henry TE Probable Finger
Brandon Marshall LB Probable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 13
–
DEN 19

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:21 FG DEN (5:21) 8-B.McManus 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. BAL 0 – DEN 3
  • Q1 01:31 FG DEN (1:31) 8-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. BAL 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 06:47 FG BAL (6:47) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – DEN 6
  • Q2 00:14 FG DEN (:14) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. BAL 3 – DEN 9
  • Q3 14:13 TD BAL (14:13) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left intended for 11-J.Norwood INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Smith [24-K.Arrington] at DEN 24. 22-J.Smith for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – DEN 9
  • Q3 09:37 FG BAL (9:37) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 13 – DEN 9
  • Q3 00:22 TD DEN (:22) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 89-S.Smith INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Talib at DEN 49. 21-A.Talib for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – DEN 15
  • Q4 03:00 FG DEN (3:00) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. BAL 13 – DEN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:41) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to DEN 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 16 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 49%

    (5:21) 8-B.McManus 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:50) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to DEN 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 47 for 13 yards (54-Z.Orr). Referee injury. Gary Arthur taken from the field.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 49%

    (1:31) 8-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:05) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to DEN 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-E.Sanders ran ob at DEN 27 for no gain.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 60%

    (6:47) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:38) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 89-S.Smith.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:20) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to DEN 45, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 81%

    (:14) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (12:37) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 89-S.Smith to BAL 40 for 22 yards (48-S.Barrett).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 81%

    (9:37) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:18) 4-B.Colquitt punts 62 yards to BAL 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (6:58) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to DEN 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 28 for 7 yards (57-C.Mosley). PENALTY on DEN-48-S.Barrett, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at DEN 28.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:55) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 89-S.Smith pushed ob at BAL 30 for 10 yards (30-D.Bruton).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:00) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at DEN 8.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 93%

    (3:00) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 80-C.Gillmore to DEN 47 for 14 yards (30-D.Bruton).