Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 85

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Denver Broncos 6

(1:20) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to DEN 45, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.28 EP
64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 85, worth -5.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model