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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 25

Denver Broncos 6 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(:14) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -0.26 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model