Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(11:41) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to DEN 14, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.01 EP
61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model