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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to DEN 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 28 for 7 yards (57-C.Mosley). PENALTY on DEN-48-S.Barrett, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at DEN 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.78 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP