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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 75

Denver Broncos 9 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 89-S.Smith pushed ob at BAL 30 for 10 yards (30-D.Bruton).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model