Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Denver Broncos 16

(14:00) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at DEN 8.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model