Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 85

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to DEN 34, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 47 for 13 yards (54-Z.Orr). Referee injury. Gary Arthur taken from the field.

The Three Options

GO -3.32 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 85, worth -5.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model