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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 38

Denver Broncos 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 8-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.00 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 49% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP