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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 8-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to JAX 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-R.Greene. PENALTY on JAX-22-A.Colvin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 30.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.88 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP