Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- QB edge to JAX: Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.058 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.113 EPA/dropback
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 1
CAR
JAX
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:52 FG CAR (7:52) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR-60-Da.Williams was injured during the play. CAR 3 – JAX 0
- Q1 01:01 FG JAX (1:01) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. CAR 3 – JAX 3
- Q2 01:56 TD CAR (1:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 82-J.Cotchery for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – JAX 3
- Q2 00:18 TD JAX (:18) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 13-R.Greene for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – JAX 9
- Q3 09:08 TD CAR (9:08) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right intended for 24-T.Yeldon INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Norman at JAX 30. 24-J.Norman for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – JAX 9
- Q4 02:46 FG CAR (2:46) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. CAR 20 – JAX 9
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(13:42) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 46 yards to CAR 30, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(6:45) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 47 yards to CAR 27, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at JAX 36 for 37 yards (19-B.Anger).
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Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 62%
(5:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%
(1:01) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 71%
(14:12) 8-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to JAX 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-R.Greene. PENALTY on JAX-22-A.Colvin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 30.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 81%
(7:24) 2-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 9Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 96%
(2:00) 1-C.Newton up the middle to JAX 7 for 2 yards (55-D.Skuta).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 17 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 28%
(11:23) 8-B.Nortman punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(6:42) 19-B.Anger punts 37 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 13 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(2:54) 8-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to JAX 2, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-R.Greene to JAX 11 for 9 yards (97-M.Addison).
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Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(1:14) 19-B.Anger punts 45 yards to CAR 45, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 45 for no gain (35-D.McCray).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 26%
(14:57) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to JAX 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(10:59) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to CAR 5, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 20 for 15 yards (55-D.Skuta; 16-D.Robinson). PENALTY on CAR-21-T.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at CAR 14.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 29 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 66% p(FG) 75%
(2:46) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 16 at the 25 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 82%
(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-C.Clemons), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 68 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(:54) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 81-B.Walters to JAX 45 for 13 yards (56-A.Klein).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 60 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(:13) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 81-B.Walters to JAX 44 for 4 yards (25-B.Benwikere).
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