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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Carolina Panthers
4th & 1 at the 9
Carolina Panthers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 1-C.Newton up the middle to JAX 7 for 2 yards (55-D.Skuta).
The Three Options
GO
+3.04 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.02 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 9, worth -0.51 EP
KICK
+1.95 EP
- 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT
-0.54 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
