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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 8-B.Nortman punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.90 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model